Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, March 11th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again due to Iran news. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 339 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (4.19%), which with yesterday afternoon’s heavy selling should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday increase late yesterday, you should see a smaller increase in this morning’s pricing.

9/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.19%

339

Dow

47,367

3

NASDAQ

22,700

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Neutral

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Today’s big economic news was the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) that showed inflation at the consumer level of the economy rose last month, but not enough to push the year-over-year rate higher. February’s overall CPI was up 0.3% while the more important core data rose 0.2%. On annual basis, the overall was at a 2.4% pace and the core data was at 2.5%. All four readings matched forecasts, preventing a positive response in the bond market.

High

Negative

Geopolitical/Financial Issues

What is driving bond trading this morning is news that Iran is supposedly sabotaging the Strait of Hormuz with mines and has already fired on a couple ships passing through. This goes to the theory that the war is likely to drag on and continue to keep oil prices high, fueling inflation concerns.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We also have a 10-year Treasury Note auction today that could affect afternoon bond trading. Favorable news for rates would be the benchmarks indicating there was a strong demand from investors. This sale is relevant to mortgage rates because they are based on long-term debt also. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities (which is a possibility with current inflation concerns) could lead to an upward revision in rates. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for rates. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of two moderately important releases. First up will be the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET that will tell us the number of people that made new claims for jobless benefits last week. It is expected to show 216,000 initial claims, up from the previous week’s 213,000 filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, meaning a larger than predicted number would be good news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Low

Unknown

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

We will also get January's Housing Starts report early tomorrow morning. This report tracks new home groundbreakings, giving us an indication of strength in the new home portion of the housing sector. It is expected to show a decline in new starts, but this report usually affects rates only slightly and that is if it reveals a sizable variance from forecasts. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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