Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

Activities begin with Fed Chairman Powell’s overseas speaking engagement that starts at 9:30 AM ET Tuesday. He will be appearing at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal. The topic of the discussion is related to monetary policy, so we could hear something that the markets find highly relevant and react accordingly.

High

Unknown

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

June's manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will start this week's economic calendar at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. May's reading that was posted last month came in at 48.5. Market participants are expecting a reading of 48.7, indicating slightly stronger activity in the manufacturing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a lower reading. This is a very important report and is watched closely, partly because it is the first piece of data that tracks the previous month's activity each month.

Medium

Unknown

ADP Employment

Wednesday brings us June's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. This report predicts changes in private-sector jobs, using the company's clients that use them for payroll processing as a base. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is known to not be accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week's calendar. It is expected to show approximately 100,000 private sector jobs were added during the month. Bond traders would prefer to see a much smaller number.

High

Unknown

Employment Situation

Thursday has four pieces of data scheduled for release, including one of the most important economic reports we get each month. In addition to the weekly unemployment update, June’s Employment report will also be released at 8:30 AM ET. This highly influential report will tell us June's unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added or lost and some earnings figures. These are considered to be extremely important employment sector readings and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and soft earnings. Weaker than expected readings would likely help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Thursday. However, stronger numbers could be extremely detrimental to mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate hold at May’s 4.2% and approximately 120,000 jobs added to the economy last month, while earnings rose 0.3%. A higher unemployment rate, fewer new jobs and a smaller increase in earnings would be considered favorable news for rates.

Medium

Unknown

Factory Orders

The day’s remaining two reports will come at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. May's Factory Orders report will give us another indication of manufacturing strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week but covers both durable and non-durable goods. It usually doesn't have as much of an impact on the bond market as the durable goods data does, meaning there is no reason to believe this report will heavily influence the markets or mortgage pricing. Current expectations show 7.9% rise in new orders from April. A much smaller increase would be good news even though it likely will have little impact on the day's rates.

Medium

Unknown

ISM Service Index

Thursday morning's fourth release will be the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index (aka service index) for June at 10:00 AM ET. This is the sister report of Tuesday's ISM manufacturing index with this version tracking business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 52.2, up from May's 49.9. A reading above 50.0 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it worsened. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much weaker than predicted reading.

Low

Unknown

Holiday Schedule

Also worth noting is this week's holiday schedule. The bond market will close early Thursday afternoon ahead of Friday's Independence Day holiday and will reopen for regular trading next Monday. Stocks will follow the same schedule. The holiday hours sometimes create pressure in the bond market as traders look to protect themselves while U.S. markets are closed for the extended weekend.

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Unknown

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Overall, the Employment report makes Thursday the best candidate for most active day for rates, but Tuesday may also bring a noticeable change if the ISM index surprises the markets and Fed Chairman Powell says something unexpected. With several events scheduled that have the potential to move rates noticeably this week, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Fed Talk

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

ADP Employment

Employment Situation

Factory Orders

ISM Service Index

Holiday Schedule

none

Float / Lock Recommendation